Bosch, the world’s largest automotive supplier, forecasts that a significant majority of vehicles sold in the United States by 2035 will still feature internal combustion engines. This projection, presented by Paul Thomas, President of Bosch North America and head of its mobility business, suggests a more gradual transition to full electrification than some anticipate.
Internal Combustion to Remain Dominant
Thomas stated at CES that approximately 70% of vehicles sold in North America through 2035 will incorporate internal combustion engine (ICE) technology. He clarified that this figure specifically pertains to the North American market, differentiating it from global trends. This outlook acknowledges the evolving political landscape and consumer demand influencing the automotive sector.
Diverse Powertrain Technologies Expected
The continued presence of internal combustion engines does not necessarily mean a return to traditional gasoline-only vehicles. Thomas indicated that these engines could power a variety of vehicles, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs). These configurations leverage the efficiency of electric powertrains alongside the established infrastructure and range benefits of combustion engines.
“Now, will they have a range extender on that vehicle? Will they have a mild hybrid or a strong hybrid? We think so, and we do think battery electric vehicles will still have a place in the market—that hasn’t changed much from what I said last year, which is that the ramp-up of electrification has changed based upon consumer demand,” Thomas explained.
Market Dynamics Influencing Bosch’s Outlook
Bosch’s perspective is shaped by recent shifts in the electric vehicle (EV) market. After experiencing rapid growth in electrification components, the company, like others, has navigated periods of cooling EV demand, leading to workforce adjustments. Bosch had previously predicted EVs to capture 40% to 50% of the North American and Chinese markets by 2024. While China has surpassed these projections with EVs constituting half of new car sales, the U.S. market has seen a slowdown influenced by policy changes, such as the rollback of EV tax credits and fuel economy rules under the Trump administration.
Automakers are responding by focusing on more profitable gasoline-powered models and awaiting further reductions in battery costs to make EVs more affordable. Bosch’s strategy involves maintaining a balanced approach across electrification, hybrids, and conventional propulsion.
Continued Investment in Engine Technology
Despite the continued focus on ICE technology, Bosch remains committed to advancing cleaner engine solutions. “We’re still 100% investing in the right technology to keep the engines moving in the right direction related to emissions,” Thomas emphasized. “The worst thing that I believe could happen is that suppliers rest on their laurels and don’t keep improving the internal combustion engine.”
This viewpoint contrasts with some EV advocates who believe that advancements in battery technology and decreasing costs will naturally lead consumers to favor EVs as superior products, irrespective of incentives. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe, for instance, recently commented to Fortune, “I really think the constraint isn’t the demand side. I think it’s the supply side. I do think that the existence of choice will help drive more penetration, and it actually creates a unique opportunity in the United States.”
By 2035, Bosch projects that pure battery electric vehicles will constitute approximately 30% of the total U.S. market.